Criminal Justice Does Not Have One Staffing Problem
public-safety · October 1, 2026
There is a staffing problem across criminal justice.
There is a staffing problem across criminal justice.
That part is difficult to dispute.
What I would not say is that criminal justice employment is at an all-time low nationwide.
The evidence does not establish that.
And that distinction matters.
Because we keep using one phrase to describe several different problems:
Not enough applicants.
Too many employees leaving.
Too many people retiring.
Positions sitting vacant.
Authorized positions being eliminated.
Hiring being frozen.
Those are not the same problem.
If we call all of them a recruitment shortage, we may never fix the right one.
Policing Has a Retention Problem Too
The U.S. Government Accountability Office reported in February 2026 that law-enforcement resignations and retirements increased from 2019 through 2024 and contributed to overall staffing declines.[1]
GAO also warned that retirement pressure may continue because approximately one-third of federal law-enforcement officers were expected to become retirement-eligible within five years.[1]
That means agencies are not simply trying to attract new people.
They are trying to replace experience walking out the door.
Those are two different challenges.
Corrections Has Another Problem
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment of correctional officers and bailiffs to decline 7 percent between 2025 and 2035.[2]
That sounds like fewer jobs.
But BLS simultaneously projects about 30,000 openings every year during that period because workers will leave the occupation or exit the workforce.[2]
That is the distinction.
An occupation can shrink overall and still have enormous replacement demand.
Corrections can technically have fewer authorized jobs while individual prisons still struggle to put enough officers on posts.
Both can be true.
Probation and Parole Look Different Again
Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists are projected to grow approximately 3 percent from 2025 through 2035, with about 7,900 openings each year.[3]
So even within criminal justice, there is no single employment trajectory.
Policing is dealing heavily with recruitment, retirement, and retention.
Corrections is projected to shrink while still needing tens of thousands of replacement workers annually.
Probation and parole are projected to grow modestly.
Calling all of that an "all-time low" hides more than it explains.
Employees Are Calculating the Total Cost of the Job
Salary matters.
It is not the only calculation anymore.
What are the hours?
How much mandatory overtime?
What is the physical risk?
What does the job do to family life?
What does it do to mental health?
How much control will I have over my schedule?
What other career could I take with the same skills?
GAO identified compensation, mental health, work-life balance, retirement eligibility, and other employment opportunities among factors affecting law-enforcement departures.[1]
Corrections adds around-the-clock shifts and one of the higher occupational injury and illness risks.
Probation and parole can involve field work, travel, deadlines, unpredictable situations, and on-call responsibilities.[2][3]
Employees are not only evaluating the paycheck.
They are calculating what the paycheck costs them.
Culture Belongs in the Staffing Conversation
The Justice Department's own recruitment and retention guidance tells agencies to examine organizational culture.
Respect.
Leadership communication.
Discrimination.
Professional development.
Employee feedback.
Whether employees can raise concerns without fearing retaliation.[4]
That matters.
Because sometimes agencies keep asking:
How do we recruit more people?
when another question should come first:
Why are the people we already recruited leaving?
You cannot recruit your way out of a retention problem forever.
Eventually the bucket has to stop leaking.
Hiring Processes Matter Too
Criminal justice hiring is complicated for legitimate reasons.
Background investigations.
Medical screening.
Psychological testing.
Training requirements.
Physical standards.
Security requirements.
Those safeguards can be necessary.
But unnecessary administrative delay is different.
GAO noted that agencies have worked to shorten hiring timelines as part of recruitment efforts.[1]
Candidates do not stop applying elsewhere because your background investigation takes six months.
Good applicants still have choices.
The longer your process takes, the more opportunities they have to accept somebody else's offer.
Then Government Can Create a Different Problem Entirely
Maryland gives us a good example.
DPSCS currently tells applicants that the FY2026 Executive Branch hiring freeze temporarily paused recruitment for most State positions, while certain classifications, including some public-safety jobs, remain exempt.[5]
That means a missing job announcement does not automatically mean the organization does not need the position.
The agency may have operational need.
The position may exist.
Budget or hiring authority may be the constraint.
Again:
Different problem.
Different solution.
Four Numbers Matter More Than the Vacancy Rate
For Maryland, I would want four numbers before concluding whether an agency has enough people:
Authorized positions.
How many jobs is the organization legally or administratively permitted to have?
Funded positions.
How many of those positions actually have money behind them?
Filled positions.
How many employees are actually working?
And most importantly:
Required staffing.
How many people are actually necessary to perform the work safely and effectively?
Those numbers can be dramatically different.
An agency can advertise a relatively low vacancy rate and still be understaffed if the authorized staffing level itself is too low.
That is why vacancy percentage alone can become a denominator problem.
Ten vacancies out of 100 authorized positions sounds like a 10 percent vacancy rate.
But if the operation actually requires 130 people to function safely, the real staffing problem is much larger.
Stop Calling Everything Recruitment
If employees are retiring, that is succession planning.
If employees are resigning, that is retention.
If nobody applies, that is recruitment.
If candidates disappear during a nine-month hiring process, that is hiring efficiency.
If positions were eliminated, that is workforce design.
If government refuses permission to fill positions, that is fiscal policy.
If authorized staffing is lower than operational need, that is capacity.
Those problems interact.
They are not interchangeable.
And until criminal justice agencies separate them, they will keep announcing recruitment campaigns while wondering why staffing never seems to stabilize.
The staffing crisis is real.
The better question is:
Which staffing crisis are you actually trying to solve?
Sources
[1] U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Law Enforcement Officers: Observations on Recruitment and Retention at the Federal, Tribal, State, and Local Levels,” GAO-26-108495, February 3, 2026.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108495
[2] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, “Correctional Officers and Bailiffs,” 2025–2035 projections.
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/protective-service/correctional-officers.htm
[3] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, “Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists,” 2025–2035 projections.
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/community-and-social-service/probation-officers-and-correctional-treatment-specialists.htm
[4] U.S. Department of Justice, “Guidance for State, Tribal, Local, and Territorial Law Enforcement Agencies on Best Practices for Officer Recruitment, Hiring, Promotion, and Retention.”
https://www.justice.gov/d9/2023-11/3d_report_with_attachments_included.pdf
[5] Maryland Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services, Employment Portal, FY2026 Executive Branch hiring-freeze notice.
https://dpscs.maryland.gov/employment/
Key takeaways
- Current evidence supports serious staffing challenges across policing, corrections, and community supervision, but not a single nationwide "all-time low" across criminal justice employment.
- GAO found increased resignations and retirements contributed to law-enforcement staffing declines from 2019 through 2024.[1]
- BLS projects correctional officer and bailiff employment to decline 7 percent from 2025 to 2035 while still generating approximately 30,000 replacement openings annually.[2]
- Probation officer and correctional treatment specialist employment is projected to grow 3 percent, with about 7,900 annual openings.[3]
- Recruitment, retention, retirement, hiring delays, position reductions, and hiring freezes are separate problems requiring different responses.
- DOJ guidance identifies organizational culture, employee respect, professional growth, leadership, and opportunities to provide feedback as important recruitment and retention factors.[4]
- Maryland's FY2026 Executive Branch hiring freeze demonstrates why fewer job postings do not automatically mean fewer operational staffing needs.[5]
- The most useful staffing comparison is authorized positions, funded positions, filled positions, and staffing required to perform the work safely.
Related articles
All articles